Eric Froton is previewing every Big Ten squad by looking back at their 2022 season, breaking down any changes in 2023, analyzing their rosters and handicapping their win total for the season.
In this installment, we take a look at the resurgent Illinois Fighting Illini.
HC - Brett Bielema (3rd year)
OC - Barry Lunney (2nd year)
DC - Aaron Henry (1st year)
2022 Record: 8-5
Second Order Win Total: 9.6 (+1.6)
2022 Over/Under: 4.5 (-125 Under)
Points/Yards Per Game: 24.2 points | 379 yards (212 Pass | 167 Rush)
Points/Yards Allowed: 12.8 points | 274 yards (174 Pass | 100 Rush)
2023 SP+ Overall: 44th
2023 SP+ Offense: 86th
2023 SP+ Defense: 8th
Offensive Returning Production: 57% (85th)
Defensive Returning Production: 55% (92nd)
247Sports Avg. Offensive Player Rating: .8458 (63rd)
247Sports Avg. Defensive Player Rating: .8407 (66th)
Pace of Play: 73.2 Plays Per Game (25th) | 26:6 Seconds Per Play (78th)
2023 Schedule Strength: 35th
Looking Back at 2021 & 2022
Heading into last year, Illinois HC Brett Bielema outperformed even the most optimistic projections for his first season at the helm of the Illini, scoring major road upsets against @Penn State and @Minnesota in contests where they were 14+ point underdogs. His new culture started taking hold in the second half, with U of I going 3-2 after their Week 7 bye, narrowly missing a 4-1 finish by losing to Rutgers in a game they had a 53% win probability.
The Illinois offense in Year 1 of the Bielema era was neither efficient, ranking 109th with a 39% success rate, nor explosive as they slotted in at 108th in explosive play rate (10.4%). What the Illini did do well was punish opponents in short yardage with a 76% power success rate (29th) while averaging 2.75 line yards per carry (41st) and converting 83% of their third-and-short opportunities (33rd).
Last year, the Illini offense was once again averse to the big play, ranking 125th in IsoPPP and 123rd in Marginal Explosiveness. They also weren’t able to cash in on their scoring opportunities, finishing 119th with a 47% Red Zone TD Rate. However, OC Barry Lunney kept the gameplan conservative with short, precision passes (just 8.7% of team passes went for 20+ yards, 123rd in FBS) which allowed QB Tommy DeVito to complete 70% of his throws with a 15-4 ratio for an offense that allowed just a 16% Havoc Rate (26th in FBS). RB Chase Brown led the Power 5 with 328 rushing attempts but only had the benefit of gaining 2.0 yards before contact, with Brown finishing second in the Power 5 in rushing yardage (Mo Ibrahim #1). The offense’s success rate jumped from 39%-to-43.5% (57th nationally) and the team ranked 3rd nationally with a +13 Turnover Margin. While far from a dominant group, the Illini improved their scoring from 20.2 PPG in 2021-to-24.2 PPG, while also boosting their yards per game from 330-to-379, a 49 yard increase.
Looking ahead to 2023
The offense returns OC Lunney and 3 OL starters, including NFL prospect LT Julian Pearl, in addition to their top 2 wideouts and starting TE. However they must replace steady veteran QB DeVito and star RB Chase Brown. They figure to be in good hands with Soph RB Reggie Love (5’11/205) and bruiser Josh McCray (6’1/240 as the established 1-2 punch, with promising freshman Kaden Feagin (top-20 2023 RB recruit) waiting in the wings. The run game will be tasked to improve upon their 16 touchdowns on 785 carries since HC Bielema took over in 2021, as their 49-to-1 carry-to-TD rate ranks 127th in FBS. Along the same vein, the Illini scored rushing touchdowns on just 10-of-96 Red Zone carries in the same two-year span (129th).
Former 4-star Ole Miss transfer QB Luke Altmyer will battle Ball State transfer John Paddock for the right to take snaps under center, with Altmyer in pole position. Bielema has been raving about the QB room and thinks the offense could improve under the guidance of the former highly sought after SEC recruit Altmyer. Isaiah Williams is the unquestioned Alpha WR, receiving 48 more targets than fellow returnee Patrick Bryant, catching a Big Ten-leading 82 passes while being thrown-to on 105 of his 342 routes (31%). He played 66% of his snaps from the slot with 57% of his routes being run within 10-yards of the line.
In 2021, the rapid Year 1 turnaround orchestrated by DC Ryan Walters cannot be understated, as he helped to shave 13 points and 101 yards (!) per game off the Illini’s 2020 averages. Six starters returned in 2022 from an ascending unit that posted a 7.7% sack rate (37th) while holding opponents to 5.2 yards per play (30th) and 1.85 points per drive (27th).
The drastic sea-change that started in 2021 hit a feverish crescendo last year with DC Walters lopping off another 9.1 points from their previous year’s PPG average to a dirt-low 12.8 PPG and a ridiculous 4.4 yards per play allowed. Illinois went from allowing 34.9 points per game in 2020, to a mere 12.8 PPG last year, a three-touchdown differential in just two years.
But that’s just the beginning, as Illinois finished 2nd nationally with 2.3 Air Yards per pass attempt vs. Man coverage (FBS Avg = 7.0), which DC Walters played 74% of the time (most in FBS), thanks to the suffocating secondary led by superstar CB Devon Witherspoon and S Sydney Brown. Over the last two seasons, they held opponents to 36 pass attempts per passing touchdown, the 3rd-best rate nationally. Their rush defense was also monstrous behind mammoth IDL Jer’Zhan Newton, ranking 2nd in FBS in rushing success rate (30%) while pitching a 24% stuff rate (14th) and allowing just 2.0 line yards per carry (3rd in FBS). DC Ryan Walters legitimately orchestrated one of the most meteoric defensive turnarounds in all of college football this decade, if not the overall #1.
The losses are massive, starting with their defensive architect DC Ryan Walters taking the HC job at Purdue. Three NFL draft picks depart from the secondary to go with 3 of the top 4 tacklers, though safeties Nicario Harper (Louisville), Demetrius Hill (FIU) and Clayton Bush (So. Illinois) are seasoned transfers with 56 collegiate starts among them that were brought in to stem the losses to their back line. NT Calvin Avery is gone, but both of the pillars of their three-man front, DE Newton and 3rd-team B10 DE Keith Randolph, are back along with a pair of Honorable Mention All-B10 OLBs in Frosh All-American Gabe Jacas and Seth Coleman.
There’s plenty of talent in this unit despite the losses, and new DC Aaron Henry is an internal hire with a secondary coach background. With their well established front-seven in place, the key to how Illinois performs this season will depend upon how well their back line regroups in the wake of major NFL declarations. Still, it’s hard to imagine Illinois will be able to replicate their historic 2022 defensive performance this season.
Analyzing Illinois’ Win Total
The Illini host Toledo before taking a trip to @Kansas that is no cake-walk now that HC Lance Leipold has the Jayhawks back to Mangino-esque relevance. That game is crucial for Illinois if they’re going to cover the 6.5, since they play vs. Penn State and FAU, before traveling to @Purdue where they play against their former DC Walters who knows the Illini roster inside and out. CFB Winning Edge is giving them a slim 52% win expectancy on the road in that matchup. The Nebraska, @Maryland, Wisconsin stretch is going to be where we really find out what Illinois is made of, as Neb/Wisc will be lined at around a field goal each way, and Wisconsin is most likely an L. At least there’s a Week 9 Bye before @Minnesota, Indiana, @Iowa, Northwestern to wrap it up.
I worry about the “reset year” after a big come-up Year 2 for Bielema. DC Walters is now a rival instead of the DC. What happens if the D just allows 20-23 PPG like a regular old nasty B10 D instead of the biblical 12.8 PPG/274 YPG they allowed last year? Is it realistic to expect another +15 turnover margin? This offense couldn’t make big plays for two seasons despite having a 70% completion rate passer in DeVito and the 2nd leading rusher in the P5 + NFL draftee Chase Brown. Altmyer is just walking in the door this year from Ole Miss and running-back their 24.2 PPG output from 2022 isn’t going to cut it. Think about it, Illinois won 8 games last year with a 6th-year QB, superior roster and a genius DC. I don’t think they get to 7 wins and am backing the Under 6.5 at Even money (Over -120).