2022 Stats (rank)
Total yards per game: 413.6 (1st)
Plays per game: 64.4 (13th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 39.8 (6th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.27 (1st)
Rush attempts per game: 24.5 (25th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.02 (10th)
Coaching Staff
Even if you have Patrick Mahomes, you still have to know what to do with him. The Chiefs continued to display complete understanding of the player in 2022. No. 1 in pass rate over expected, the Chiefs were also No. 1 in points and yards per game. They were No. 1 in dropback EPA. All this without a legitimate No. 1 receiver after they traded Tyreek Hill in the offseason. They also mixed and matched in the backfield, where seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco emerged as the lead runner and the age-defying Jerick McKinnon continued to catch passes. Let Mahomes cook and good things will happen.
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Passing Game
QB: Patrick Mahomes, Blaine Gabbert (lol)
WR: Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice
WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson
WR: Skyy Moore, Richie James
TE: Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, Jody Fortson
Patrick Mahomes’ lack of true dual-threat credentials — despite a successful Beach Dad running style — leads to the annual temptation of defaulting someone else to No. 1 overall quarterback status in fantasy drafts. I won’t be making that mistake for 2023. While it’s true that Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts probably both have higher ceilings in absolute terms, Mahomes’ ludicrously high floor makes his ceiling more easily attainable. He is the safest investment there is on the fake football gridiron.
That is not to say the Chiefs have fixed Mahomes’ receiver woes. The big plan for 2023 is to place a big bet on Kadarius Toney, who is hoping the third time is the charm when it comes to keeping his hamstrings healthy. Toney’s stop/start athleticism remains amongst the most electrifying in the game, but it seems to place an undue burden on his joints and lower body. If the Chiefs can figure out a way to keep the third-year pro on the field, he offers nearly limitless upside with Mahomes as his triggerman. As it is, the Chiefs never trusted Toney as more than a package player in 2022, and he responded by catching just 14 passes in seven games. He did average 2.70 yards per route run in the process, a number that would have placed him second in the league in Pro Football Focus’ database had he played enough snaps to qualify. The Chiefs have praised both Toney’s vertical and YAC ability this offseason. They seem to be true believers. Believe it when you see it, but Toney is a worthy WR3 gamble.
Behind Toney is all manner of dart throws and role players. Skyy Moore is the first man up. Most noted as a rookie for his special teams blunders, Moore is now equally famous for his Super Bowl touchdown. Although that was a friendly exclamation point on a disappointing campaign, Moore commanded just nine targets across the Chiefs’ three postseason contests, running 43 total routes, 31 of which came in the AFC Championship Game. Beyond the touchdown, he was not a part of the Super Bowl game plan. Coach Andy Reid still saw something he liked. Speaking in February, he said Moore would have a bigger 2023 role. He confirmed it in June by saying Moore made a “good jump” in offseason practices. WR4 upside seekers can gamble that the rookie leap from Western Michigan to the NFL was simply too big to make in one season, and that Moore will be much better as a sophomore.
It remains to be seen if Moore will actually be a staple of three-receiver sets, but the same is not true of deep threat Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Although he was once again a fantasy bust in 2022, MVS served his purpose for the Chiefs. He commanded cushion and averaged 13.9 air yards per attempt, with that latter number checking in ninth in the league. He occupied defensive attention deep and kept corners honest. As a bonus, he busted the occasional big play, providing 13 receptions of 20-plus yards and averaging a strong 16.4 yards per catch. That he scored only two touchdowns was probably something of a fluke, but someone as big-play reliant as Valdes-Scantling isn’t suddenly going to become a 10-touchdown threat, even with Mahomes. MVS remains little more than a WR5 space filler.
The man of mystery in the Chiefs’ receiver corps is rookie Rashee Rice. Something of a do-over on last year’s Moore selection, Rice arrives with a second-round pedigree but inconsistent college track record. Rice (6’1/204) beat up on his group of five competition … except for when he didn’t. Big for a receiver by the standards of the current NFL, Rice is also fast for his size, posting a solid 4.51 40-yard dash but better 10- and 20-yard splits. He is a dominant jumper with a 41-inch vertical and 10’8’’ broad jump. Those metrics show up in his ball skills. Also a YAC threat, Rice plays strong. He “just” needs to clean up the finer points of his game, which is easier said than done at the NFL level, as Moore proved last season. Already 23 and arriving from a non-power five conference, Rice figures to be brought along slowly. Despite his long-term upside, he’s not much of a WR5 flier in re-draft.
None of this is to ignore the great man, Travis Kelce. The ageless wonder actually stopped a multi-year efficiency slide in 2022, bumping his yards per route run from 1.84 to 2.23. Although still not the mark Kelce was posting in his prime, it was good for second amongst tight ends in PFF’s ranks. He ran more than triple the routes of “No. 1” Chigoziem Okonkwo. It’s difficult to keep betting on a player entering his mid-30s, but even were Kelce’s efficiency to completely crater, his raw volume and red zone usage should keep him in the top three at tight end. As it stands now, he is alone at the top.
Running Game
RB: Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deneric Prince
OL (L-R): Donovan Smith, Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Jawaan Taylor
Andy Reid has never stuck to just one approach in the backfield, employing both bell-cows and committees. He has settled firmly on the latter in the Chiefs’ post-Kareem Hunt days, with Isiah Pacheco handling the between-the-tackles work and Jerick McKinnon catching passes. It sounds simple on paper but is complicated by Pacheco’s recovery from hand and shoulder operations. Pacheco is not expected to be ready for the opening days of camp, though he does seem on course for Week 1.
If Pacheco is out there against the Lions, it will be as a sophomore who blew past expectations as a seventh-round rookie. The No. 251 overall pick of the draft, Pacheco quickly seized No. 1 duties away from a struggling Clyde Edwards-Helaire, making a name for himself with power running that at times bordered on manic. For better or worse, Pacheco forced would-be tacklers to drag him down. He contributed little as a pass catcher, but his five-catch AFC Championship Game hinted at room for future improvement. Even were McKinnon to repeat last year’s 71 targets, Pacheco could goose both his floor and upside with more goal-line opportunities in an offense that probably can’t pass as much as it did in the red zone last season. Provided he’s healthy, Pacheco could end up blowing by his low-end RB2 summer ADP.
As for McKinnon, he appears poised to slide back into his typical third-down role. That is despite the fact that the Chiefs let him wallow on the open market until May 2. Although that could hint at indifference to his return, it was more likely confidence that no one would better their one-year, $1.165 million offer. As healthy as he has ever been during his star-crossed career, McKinnon caught a career-high 56 passes last season while drawing a ridiculous 15 red zone targets. He found the end zone nine times, taking a major bite out of Pacheco’s apple on the ground. None of those numbers are likely to be repeated, but McKinnon maintains PPR FLEX appeal in this high-powered offense.
Should either Pacheco or McKinnon fall, fourth-year bust Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the next man up. That’s if he keeps his 53-man roster spot. CEH could have to hold off buzzy undrafted free agent Deneric Prince, though the Chiefs carried four backs in 2022. Prince is a dynasty league stash. CEH is a waiver wire insurance back.
Win Total
The Chiefs are set at 11.5, a number they have cleared all five of their Mahomes-led seasons. The schedule is brutal, with Warren Sharp ranking it as the league’s fifth toughest. They also haven’t solved their receiver woes and are again reshuffling along the offensive line. It’s just difficult to get too concerned about this group, or even envision a negative scenario. 12 wins seems almost preordained.