With a seemingly endless pool of 40-60 target Tight Ends to sort through, how do we differentiate between them other than a good old fashioned eyeball test? Projecting Legacy schools like Iowa, Penn State, Notre Dame who churn out NFL TEs is a tried & true method that most of your league mates are going to sniff out on Day 1. The next phase of evolution is to play “Follow The Coordinator/HC” based on their historical TE production & chase the pass-heavy TEs who accrued the most targets the previous season.
However beyond basic usage rates and school/coordinator legacies, most people don’t dig beyond those logical, surface indicators because Tight Ends are the most consistently overlooked players in all of CFF. The raw target-test and cursory overview will provide a workable 25-30 player list that will carry you through most 12-team, 1-TE CFF drafts. But what are you going to do when you start diving into deeper leagues with 14, 16, 20, 24 or even the 50-Team College Football Championship League run by Thor Nystrom?
A higher level of analysis is required, and if you can sneak through a high-performing sleeper TE into the double-digit rounds, you’re going to have the advantage of using your high-value draft picks to stockpile RB/WRs. Here is a comprehensive historical analysis from the last 5 years of the Tight End position, along with several players I think you should have on your CFF/C2C radar:
2018
TEs with 40+ Targets = 37 (22 P5/15 G5)
TEs with 400+ Yards = 24 (16 P5/8 G5)
TEs with 4 TDs in 2021 = 23 (15 P5/8 G5)
TEs w/ 400+ Yards + 4 TDs = 17 (11 P5/6 G5)
TEs w/400+ Yards + 4 TDs that didn’t have 50 Targets = 2
Lowest amount of targets w/400 yards + 4 TDs = 47 - Romello Brooker , Houston
TE’s w/500 Yards + 5 TDs = 7 (5 P5/2 G5)
Lowest amount of targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 57 (Irv Smith - Alabama - 44-of-57 for 707 Yards, 7 TDs
Average amount of Targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 69.2
Schools that produced 500/5 TEs = Texas A&M (Y1 OC Darrell Dickey ) | Iowa X2 - Noah Fant & TJ Hockenson (Y2 OC Brian Ferentz ) | Alabama (Y2 OC Mike Locksley ) | Texas State (Y2 OC ZaK Kuhr) | Vanderbilt (Y4 OC Andy Ludwig ) | Western Kentucky (Y2 OC Junior Adams )
2019
TEs with 40+ Targets = 46 (26 P5/20 G5)
TEs with 400+ Yards = 35 (18 P5/17 G5)
TEs with 4 TDs in 2021 = 42 (22 P5/20 G5)
TEs w/ 400+ Yards + 4 TDs = 25 (12 P5/13 G5)
TEs w/400+ Yards + 4 TDs that didn’t have 50 Targets = 6
Lowest amount of targets w/400 yards + 4 TDs = 35 - Benjamin Waters , Air Force (TEITO)
TE’s w/500 Yards + 5 TDs = 12 (7 P5/5 G5)
Lowest amount of targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 35 - Watson
Average amount of Targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 70.1
Schools who produced 500/5 TEs = SMU (Y2 OC Rhett Lashlee ) | ULM (Y2 OC Matt Kubik ) | Western Michigan (Y2 OC Jake Moreland ) | Air Force (Y13 OC Mike Thiessen) | Penn State (Y2 OC Ricky Rahne ) | Cincinnati (Y3 OC Mike Denbrock ) | Iowa State (Y3 OC Tom Manning ) | Purdue (Y3 OC Brian Brohm ) | FAU (Y2 OC Charlie Weiss Jr.) | Utah (Y1 OC Andy Ludwig ) | Notre Dame (Y3 OC Chip Long ) | Florida (Y2 OC Billy Gonzalez)
2021
TEs with 40+ Targets = 45 (24 P5/21 G5)
TEs with 400+ Yards = 34 (22 P5/12 G5)
TEs with 4 TDs in 2021 = 41 (24 P5/17 G5}
TEs w/ 400+ Yards + 4 TDs = 24 (15 P5/9 G5}
TEs w/400+ Yards + 4 TDs that didn’t have 50 Targets = 6
Lowest amount of targets w/400 yards + 4 TDs = 38 - Cameron Latu
TE’s w/500 Yards + 5 TDs = 12 (7 P5/5 G5)
Lowest amount of targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 45 - Dalton Kincaid , Utah
Average amount of Targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 75.8
Schools who produced 500/5 TEs = Georgia (Y2 OC Todd Monken ) | Coastal Carolina (Y1 OC Isaac Newland/Willie Korn) | UAB (Y4 OC Brian Vincent) | Nevada (Y5 OC Matt Mumme ) | Utah X2 (Y3 OC Andy Ludwig ) | Virginia (Y6 OC Robert Anae ) | Memphis (Y3 OC Kevin Johns) | Notre Dame (Y2 OC Tommy Rees ) | Iowa State (Y3 OC Tom Manning ) | UCLA (Y3 OC Justin Frye ) | Old Dominion (Y1 OC Kirk Campbell )
2022
TEs with 40+ Targets = 53 (36 P5/17 G5)
TEs with 400+ Yards = 32 (22 P5/10 G5)
TEs with 4 TDs in 2021 = 47 (27 P5/20 G5}
TEs w/ 400+ Yards + 4 TDs = 18 (12 P5/6 G5}
TEs w/400+ Yards + 4 TDs that didn’t have 50 Targets = 3
Lowest amount of targets w/400 yards + 4 TDs = 43 - Mason Fairchild , Kansas
TE’s w/500 Yards + 5 TDs = 7 (6 P5/1 G5)
Lowest amount of targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 59 - Brayden Willis
Average amount of Targets with 500 Yards + 5 TDs = 78.2
Schools who produced 500/5 TEs = Notre Dame (Y3 OC Tommy Rees ) | Purdue (Y5 OC Brian Brohm ) | Utah (Y4 OC Anndy Ludwig) | Oklahoma (Y1 OC Jeff Lebby ) | Memphis (Y1 OC Tim Cramsey ) | Georgia (Y3 OC Todd Monken ) | Texas (Y2 OC Kyle Flood )
- In 2018, 37 Tight Ends received at least 40 targets. That baseline number rose to 53 players last season, a 43% increase.
- With the leap in overall Tight End usage, 12 players hit the 500/5 “Elite TE” mark in 2019 & 2021. However, just 7 players reached that plateau last year.
- In 2022 Just 1 G5 Tight End achieved Elite 500/5 status - Memphis’ Caden Prieskorn. Unfortunately Prieskorn transferred to Ole Miss, along with 2022 G5 TE2 Seydou Traore, leaving zero Elite Group of Five TEs returning to their respective schools.
- The average number of targets needed to achieve Elite TE status has steadily risen in each of the last four seasons, going from 69.2 in 2018 to 78.2 last year.
- Between his stints at Vanderbilt and Utah, OC Andy Ludwig is the King of the Tight Ends. In the 4 years listed here, Ludwig’s offenses produced 4 TEs with at least 500 Yards & 5 TDs. No other OC contributed more than 2 to the Elite ranks.
The Wide Rate Corollary
2018
1 - Colby Parkinson , Stanford: 14.6% Wide Rate = 29-of-53 | 485 Yards | 7 TDs
2 - Grant Calcaterra , Oklahoma: 13.9% Wide Rate = 26-of-43 | 396 Yards | 6 TDs
3 - Jared Pinkney , Vanderbilt: 10.3% Wide Rate = 50-of-81 | 770 Yards | 7 TDs
4 - Albert Okwuegbunam
, Missouri: 9.1% Wide Rate = 43-of-56 | 467 Yards | 6 TDs
2019
1 - Thaddeus Moss , LSU: 34.1% Wide Rate = 47-of-57 | 570 Yards | 4 TDs
2 - Benjamin Waters , Air Force: 25.6% Wide Rate = 22-of-35 | 658 Yards | 29.9 YPC (!) | 7 TDs (TEITO)
3 - Caleb Repp , Utah State: 19% Wide Rate = 36-of-54 | 455 Yards | 12.6 YPC | 4 TDs
4 - Kyle Pitts , Florida: 18.4 Wide Rate = 54-of-80 | 649 Yards | 12.0 YPC | 5 TDs
5 - Armani Levias , Marshall: 14.1% Wide | 45-of-56 | 537 Yards | 11.7 YPC | 3 TDs
6 - Quentin Morris, Bowling Green 13.1% Wide Rate: 54-of-94 | 639 Yards | 11.8 YPC | 4 TDs
2021
Cole Turner, Nevada: 26.8% Wide Rate = 62-of-93 | 677 Yards | 10 TDs
Christian Trahan , Houston: 25.5% Wide Rate = 37-of-47 | 398 Yards | 2 TDs
Brant Kuithe , Utah: 15.8% Wide Rate = 50-of-71 | 611 Yards | 6 TDs
Jaheim Bell , South Carolina: 15% Wide Rate = 30-of-41 | 488 Yards | 5 TDs
Michael Mayer , Notre Dame: 13.6% = 71-of-95 | 840 Yards | 7 TDs
Ryan Jones , ECU: 12.5% Wide Rate = 37-of-49 | 442 Yards | 5 TDs
Peyton Hendershot , Indiana: 12.0% Wide Rate = 46-of-62 | 543 Yards | 4 TDs
Charlie Kolar , Iowa State: 11.4% Wide Rate = 63-of-95 | 764 Yards | 6 TDs
Brock Bowers , Georgia: 10.6% Wide Rate = 56-of-71 | 882 Yards | 13 TDs
Trey McBride , Colorado State: 10.5% Wide Rate = 91-of-122 | 1,125 Yards | 1 TD
2022
Sam LaPorta , Iowa: 20.5% Wide Rate: 58-of-90 | 648 Yards | 1TD
Jack Westover, Washington: 19.4% Wide Rate: 31-of-44 | 342 Yards | 1 TD
Terrence Ferguson , Oregon: 18.1% Wide Rate: 32-of-44 | 391 Yards | 5 TDs
Tanner McLachlan, Arizona: 14.8% Wide Rate: 34-of-51 | 456 Yards | 2 TDs
Tanner Koziol, Ball State: 14.8% Wide Rate: 35-of-65 | 379 Yards | 7 TDs
Michael Mayer , Notre Dame: 14.2% Wide Rate: 67-of-101 | 809 Yards | 9 TDs
Jalin Conyers , Arizona State: 13.1% Wide Rate: 37-of-46 | 411 Yards | 5 TDs
Cameron Latu , Alabama: 12.9% Wide Rate: 30-of-49 | 376 Yards | 4 TDs
Ja’Tavion Sanders , Texas: 12.7% Wide Rate: 54-of-72 | 613 Yards| 5 TDs
Davis Allen , Clemson: 12.0% Wide Rate: 39-of-51 | 443 Yards | 5 TDs
Devin Culp , Washington: 11.4% Wide Rate: 29-of-43 | 266 Yards | 1 TD
Josiah Johnson , UMASS: 10.5% Wide Rate: 24-of-41 | 163 Yards | 0 TDs
Luke Lachey , Iowa: 10.2% Wide Rate: 28-of-43 | 382 Yards | 4 TDs
Mason Taylor, LSU: 9.5% Wide Rate: 38-of-55 | 414 Yards | 3 TDs
Dalton Kincaid , Utah: 9.5% Wide Rate: 70-of-93 | 890 Yards | 8 TDs
George Takacs , Boston College: 9.1% Wide Rate = 26-of-41 | 256 Yards | 1 TD
Ryan Jones , ECU: 9.1% Wide Rate = 42-of-59 | 406 Yards | 4 TDs
(Oronde Gadsden would obviously qualify, but I kept him off the list because he is a TEITO)
Tight Ends with at least 40 targets and 9% of their pass reps lined up Wide:
2018: 4
2019: 6
2021: 10
2022: 17
- The Air Raid-ification of CFB has led to a drastic expansion for the tight end position, as astute OCs have flexed out their uber-athletic TEs to take advantage of size/speed mismatches on the boundary. Where only 4 tight ends recorded 9%+ of their reps out Wide in 2018, that number has spiked to 17 last year.
- In 2021, only 2 of the top-20 TEs in Wide Rate with 40 or more targets didn’t have at least 400 receiving yards = Daniel Bellinger , SDSU - 31-of-41 | 353 yards | 2 TDs) & Christian Trahan , Houston - 37-of-47 | 398 Yards | 2 TDs.
- In 2022, 17 of the Top-20 TEs in Wide Rate with at least 45 targets finished with 400+ Receiving Yards.
- Of the Top-10 returning 2023 Tight Ends in PPG scoring, 7 of them had a Wide Rate of 9% or more.
As you might expect, the further downfield a tight end catches passes, the more yardage they are able to pile up. With that statement in mind, here are The Top-10 Returning Tight Ends According to Target Depth (20+ Targets):
Theo Johnson , Penn State - 13.1 Yard ADOT
Bryson Nesbit, UNC - 11.8 Yard ADOT
Tanner Kozioi, Ball State - 11.7 Yard ADOT
Will Kacmarek, Ohio - 11.4 Yard ADOT
Thomas Yassmin, Utah - 11.1 Yard ADOT
JJay Mcafee, Georgia Southern - 10.9 Yard ADOT
Ben Sinnot, Kansas State - 10.5 Yard ADOT
Luke Lachey , Iowa - 10.0 Yard ADOT
Tanner McLachlan, Arizona - 10.0 Yard ADOT
Dominick Mazotti, San Jose State - 9.5 Yard ADOT
Tight Ends that I feel are being undervalued based on projected Wide Rate Usage and Target Depth:
Jake Briningstool, Clemson is poised to take over for Davis Allen , who posted a strong 12.0% Wide Rate: 39-of-51 | 443 Yards | 5 TDs as the primary TE option. At 6'6 he has a raptor-like wingspan and was considered a consensus top-3 TE recruit out of the 2021 prep class. With QB Cade Klubnik now settled into the starting role, I expect to see Briningstool expand his pass-oriented role (Just 32% of snaps inline) similar to the 12% Wide Rate we saw from Davis Allen last season. I firmly believe we see Briningstool ascend into 500/5 territory for a resurgent Clemson offense.
Thomas Yassmin, Utah
Perhaps the greatest believer in the TE position of any OC in football is Utah’s Andy Ludwig . This CFF hero somehow coaxed a respectable offense out of Vanderbilt in 2018 by leaning on star TE Jared Pinkney who recorded an exemplary 10.3% Wide Rate | 50-of-81 | 770 Yards | 7 TDs. Ludwig then went reprised his TE-heavy system at Utah, where over the last two seasons Brant Kuithe contributed 15.8% Wide Rate = 50-of-71 | 611 Yards | 6 TDs in 2021, while Dalton Kincaid exploded for 9.5% Wide Rate: 70-of-93 | 890 Yards | 8 TDs last year. While Kuithe is back from injury, Ludwig’s offense can easily support two tight ends. Which leaves former Rugby player Thomas Yassmin who is set to inherit Kincaid’s role. Despite reeling in only 13 passes, Yassmin’s freakish athleticism and contact balance allowed him to generate 295 receiving yards and SIX touchdowns to go with an absurd 22.7 yards per reception average. Toss in an 11.1 ADOT and a ridiculous 54% broken tackle rate, and you’ve got a primetime sleeper in 12-team leagues.
Jjay Mcafee, Georgia Southern
Of all players who received at least 20 targets last year, “The Anti-Virus” Mcafee (6'3/220) led the way with a robust 48% Wide Rate for the pass-heavy GaSo Air Raid offense. A strong 10.9 ADOT (6th among all returning TEs) foreshadows a potentially huge leap in CFF relevance if he can scale up the impressive production of his final four games when he secure 13-of-23 targets for 130 yards and three touchdowns. A converted wideout, Mcafee has logged 72% of his reps out wide over the last two seasons. Fortunately he avoids the dreaded TEITO moniker as 32% of his pass snaps were run from an inline position. Mcafee has a lot of important data points in his favor. He averaged 22 pass snaps per game down the stretch, if that trend continues in 2023 and Mcafee can hit the 50-60 target mark, he’s going to be a weekly starter in most formats.
Hudson Habermehl, UCLA
UCLA HC Chip Kelly is renowned for his potent CFF-friendly offenses, and his Tight End unit is no exception. Denver Broncos TE Greg Dulcich is the most recent example of a game-changing CFF TE, but that doesn’t mean he’s the last. Unfortunately Chip split the TE reps between Michael Ezeike (22-of-30/226 Yards/4 TDs + 18% Wide Rate) and Habermehl (15-of-24/167 Yards/2 TDs + 16% Wide Rate), so neither one was able to elevate their game to the dizzying heights tha Dulchich was able to reach. However with Ezeike now graduated, Habermehl is slated to be the primary TE option for UCLA this year in a traditionally coveted system. His 8.5 ADOT indicates HC Kelly is comfortable stretching the field with him, while his 110.9 passer rating when targeted is 20 points higher than Ezeike’s. If he can consolidate the 54 targets divided between the two, Habermehl could be a nice weekly option in deep leagues for what amounts to a waiver claim.
Shane Calhoun , ECU
ECU HC Mike Houston has shown the willingness to deploy his tight end as a weapon, with Ryan Jones putting up a very respectable season line: 9.1% Wide Rate = 42-of-59 | 406 Yards | 4 TDs. Jones’ 59 targets was the 15th highest tight end mark last year, while for his part Calhoun reeled in 24-of-28 targets for 199 yards and two touchdowns with a 37% inline snap rate. Calhoun shined in spring with 4 catches for 37 yards in the Pirates’ first scrimmage. Calhoun should receive a similar 60 target workload to Jones, which should make him a viable TE2 with upside.
Jack Westover, Washington
Few programs have as rich a tight end history as Washington, with Cade Otton , Hunter Bryant , Jeremy Stevens, Mark Bruener, Austin Safarian-Jenkins, and Will Dissly all achieving NFL success. Westover has been on campus for four years biding his time behind Otton before getting his shot in 2022. He played reserve snaps in the early going before taking over the starting role from Devin Culp over the last five contests, as Culp’s ghastly 20% drop rate was simply untenable and among the very worst rates at the tight end position. Westover’s 71% catch rate should help him stay on the field consistently, and stands to likely see a bump in usage as the main safety valve in offensive guru HC Kalen DeBoer ‘s high-octane passing offense. However the way Westover is lined up out wide is a good indicator that he can be more than just a tertiary option. In fact Westover leads all returning non-TEITOs with at least 35 targets with a 19.4% Wide Rate. Considering he already managed to produce 342 receiving yards on 44 targets in largely part-time work last season, Westover should be in the 55-60 target range this season, which I believe would put him in play for a 500/5 campaign if Washington drops 40 PPG this year. Westover is a deep cut, as I’ve been the only person to draft him in our 30-round CFF Champions League Best Ball Drafts that starts two Tight Ends per week.
Theo Johnson , Penn State
I don’t need to tell anyone who is reading this column about the vaunted PSU TE legacy. It’s a no-brainer for every C2C/CFF/Devy aficionado to consider their starting tight end no matter who it is. The time for Penn State to compete for a Big Ten title has arrived with Drew Allar , the Singleton/Allen dynamic backfield duo and LT Fashanu who is a lockdown top-3 OT in the 2024 NFL Draft. The only question about OC Mike Yurcich ‘s offense is the pass catching unit - who replaces Mitch Tinsley, Brenton Strange and Parker Washington ? While Kent State transfer Dante Cephas is the logical favorite at X-WR, the CFF community is sleeping on the potential impact of Theo Johnson on first year starting QB Allar. Not only does Johnson have an elite top-100 recruiting pedigree, but he’s been wildly efficient in his limited opportunities. His 83% catch rate (20-of-24 = 4th in FBS), 16.4 yards per reception (2nd among FBS returnees) and 13.1 ADOT (#1 in FBS) are all spectacular marks on a per down basis. With Strange’s 38 targets now vacated, that’s 62 targets for Johnson to monopolize from last year. TJ was selected in the 17th round of the most recent CFF Champions Best Ball League that starts 2 TE per week. I only allowed that to happen for market research purposes. Theo Johnson is going to be mine in every subsequent draft at his current ADP. Along these same lines, I also like Ohio TE Will Kacmarek to take a step into CFF deep league relevance now that co-starter Tyler Foster departs, as the two combined for 51 targets, 449 yards and 4 TDs between them in a potent offense led by star legacy QB Kurtis Rourke .