Fantasy Fallout: Porzingis, Smart blockbuster

What a roller coaster of an evening! The Celtics, Wizards and Clippers were engaged in a three-team deal centered on Kristaps Porzingis and Malcolm Brogdon that was all but done. The deal fell through due to concerns about Brogdon’s “injury status,” per Marc Stein.

Intent on blowing things up in the nation’s capital and getting KP to Boston, the Wiz found another willing trade partner in Memphis and shocked the basketball world with a deal sending Marcus Smart to the Grizzlies.

Here’s the full breakdown of the deal:

Wizards

• Tyus Jones
• Danilo Gallinari
• Mike Muscala
• No. 35 pick, 2023 Draft

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis
• No. 25 pick, 2023 Draft
• 2024 first-round pick

Grizzlies

• Marcus Smart

How does this mega deal impact the fantasy hoops landscape? How will Smart and Morant co-exist in Memphis? How will KP fare playing with a title contender in Boston? Does this deal have any significance on Chris Paul’s future in Washington? Let’s check it out!

Celtics

Kristaps Porzingis

KP had arguably the best season of his career in his only full campaign for the Wizards in 2022-23. He finished with 23.2 points, 8.4 boards, 2.7 dimes, 1.6 swats, 0.9 steals and 2.1 triples while shooting 49.8% from the field. The points, dimes, steals and FG% were all career highs, and the 65 games played were his most since 2016-17. Porzingis’ role in Washington was that of a featured star, and while he’ll certainly have ample playing time with Boston, he’s not going to see the 27.3% Usage Rate he saw a season ago.

Porzingis will be sharing the court with superstar Jayson Tatum and star Jaylen Brown. He could be the second option on offense on some nights, but he’ll typically be the third option playing alongside these two. Fortunately for fantasy managers, Porzingis’ unique skillset featuring three-pointers and blocks gives him a study floor. He might not be a top-20 player, but he can certainly be a top-40 or top-50 guy. It’s a move in the wrong direction for fantasy purposes, but it won’t be a precipitous drop-off.

Al Horford, Robert Williams

After his breakout 2021-22 season in which he finished 16th in per-game fantasy value, Robert Williams was a huge letdown for fantasy managers in ‘22-23. He finished 69th in per-game value and logged just 35 games. Health was the biggest culprit, as he missed nearly two months to start the season and played only 23.5 minutes per game compared to the 29.6 he logged a season ago. He’s an offseason removed from injury, but with KP in the mix, we can’t expect him to push for 30 minutes.

The Celtics already have a big who can defend well and hit outside shots, but Porzingis is a younger and more talented version of Horford. Neither Horford nor Time Lord will have their minutes completely slashed, but Porzingis’ addition to the frontcourt means both should see a reduction in playing time and a reduction in usage when on the court.

Derrick White

White was huge for Boston numerous times throughout the season, and his fantasy value should get a huge boost with Smart out of town. The C’s seem open to trading Malcolm Brogdon as well, which should open up plenty of playing time for White. Per Statmuse (Brogdon) and Statmuse (Smart), White’s points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and triples all increased notably when Smart was unavailable and modestly when Brogdon was unavailable. Payton Pritchard will get a bump in points leagues, but he’s a score-first guy who doesn’t do much beyond his offense. White is the real winner in Boston’s backcourt even if Brogdon sticks around.

Grizzlies

Marcus Smart, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane

Smart should feast for the first 25 games of the season while Ja Morant serves his suspension. After that, things might get a little hairy. The Grizzlies aren’t going to have Ja Morant come off the bench and with Desmond Bane needed on the court for his three-point shooting, it’s unclear what kind of starting lineup Memphis will employ. No matter how Memphis constructs its starting lineup, both Morant and Smart are likely going to take hits in their fantasy production.

Whether leading the second unit or playing alongside Morant, Smart is going to see a reduction in usage and a dip in the valuable assists category. Morant should see a dip in usage as well, as Smart is a capable facilitator and Defensive Player of the Year who will get plenty of run. Bane is the only one of the trio that comes out of this unscathed, as his shooting and scoring should remain consistent no matter who’s running the offense. Smart and Morant will ultimately cannibalize each other’s production.

Grizzlies Bench

Guys like John Konchar, Luke Kennard and Ziaire Williams are going to see their minutes reduced with Smart in the mix, but please don’t cry too hard for these fantasy legends.

Wizards

Tyus Jones

He’s been a fantasy darling for years thanks to his tremendous production when Ja Morant missed time. Last season was no different for the “Jones starter narrative,” as he delivered 16.4 points, 8.1 dimes, 4.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 2.0 triples on 50% shooting in 22 games as a starter. That included a 20/10/10 triple-double against the Spurs and nine games with double-digit assists. Jones is now set to take on an expanded role with the Wizards, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he became a full-time starter for his new team. He’s got juicy, top-75 upside for a rebuilding franchise that might throw him as many minutes as he can handle. Jones is the biggest winner of this trade, and it’s not particularly close.

I’m still not sure why anyone held Morris last season. There were some serviceable performances throughout 2022-23, but for the most part, his production was unbelievably bland. Wright, on the other hand, had some monster weeks, thanks in large part to big steal numbers and the ability to rack up assists and occasionally get hot on offense. Both players figure to see a reduction in playing time with Jones on the scene, but here’s to hoping Morris is the one who’s phased out in favor of Wright. Another addition to the backcourt is a move in the wrong direction for Johnny Davis’ development. Don’t expect him to be a fantasy factor anytime soon.

Daniel Gafford

Big Danny G played great basketball last season, and he was a useful fantasy option for much of the campaign. Though he and Porzingis peacefully co-existed together in the starting lineup, his averages of 13.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.9 blocks, when KP was unavailable, were a big improvement over his averages of 7.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.1 blocks when Porzingis played. Washington’s frontcourt is mighty thin, and Gafford is set to take on an expanded role. He’s a big fantasy winner of this deal.

Deni Avdija

“Mr. Grand Slam” had some top-100 fantasy weeks to end the season thanks to multiple injuries across Washington’s roster. In 64 games with KP, he averaged 9.1 points, 5.9 boards, 2.7 dimes and 0.8 steals, but in 12 games without him, he averaged 9.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.3 dimes and 1.3 steals. Avdija should be a good source of boards and steals with some triples mixed in for good measure. We’re not expecting a top-75 finish, but he can easily be a top-120 guy with top-100 upside. He’ll be a nice addition to fantasy squads in the later rounds of drafts.

Chris Paul

When news broke that Paul was heading to Washington in a deal that sent Bradley Beal to Phoenix, it was reported that the Wizards would look for a third team to get into the mix so that Paul could be re-routed to a preferred destination. That hasn’t happened yet, but the acquisition of Jones surely solidifies the belief that CP3 won’t play for Washington in 2023-24. The Celtics are now potentially in the market for a new PG, so perhaps Paul ends up there? Is there still a way to get him to one of the Los Angeles teams for a team-up with LeBron James or a reunion with the Clippers?