John Deere is a company known for their heavy machinery but the John Deere Classic is known for low scores.
The winning score has been 18-under or lower in 13 straight editions.
When looking at the betting board, we want to target golfers with a history of performing well on similar, easy setups. Here are a few tournament matchups that stood out, with that in mind.
Chez Reavie over Beau Hossler - Tournament Matchup (+100)
Hossler has a lot of go-low potential on a course that puts a lot of wedges in your hands and often turns into a putting contest.
That being said, Reavie brings the consistency I like to see in a tournament matchup. He’s also trending with nearly 17 strokes gained on approach in his last three starts.
TPC Deere Run really rewards good iron play and Hossler has lost strokes on approach in 12 of his last 15 events. As long as we can dodge an ulra-low round from Hossler, I think Reavie can coast to a win in this matchup.
Emiliano Grillo over Cameron Young - Tournament Matchup (+115)
We have two golfers heading in opposite directions currently.
Grillo enters with a win and four other top 25s in his last eight events played. On the flip side, Young arrives with seven straight starts without a top-30 finish. It was exciting to see his putter surge out the gate when adding Paul Tesori to the bag, but he’s gone cold with strokes lost putting in five of his last seven starts.
Young will be making his tournament debut while Grillo posted a runner-up finish here last year. TPC Deere Run is a second-shot course that doesn’t give you a lot of holes to flex your power. Young is one of the best drivers on the planet so it’s not ideal anytime you have to put away the big stick and hit to the same spot as the rest of the field.
Add it all up, and Grillo at plus-money looks like very good value here.