Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting three games, the Orioles vs Yankees, Marlins vs Cardinals and Twins against the Royals.
Cardinals (+100) at Marlins (-120): O/U 8.0
Braxton Garrett takes the mound for Miami and the Marlins have won six-straight games when he starts (5-0 in June).
On the other side, Miles Mikolas goes for St. Louis and the Cardinals have lost five-straight, going 0-5 in June with Mikolas pitching.
These two pitchers are trending in opposite directions with Garrett’s 2.22 ERA and .188 OBA putting Mikolas’ 6.07 ERA and .325 OBA to shame during the month of June.
St. Louis has played three games in the past two days, so their bullpen might be limited as they go on the road to Miami.
All six LHP that St. Louis faced in June went 5.2 innings (17 outs) or more and four of them hit six-plus strikeouts, so Garrett should find success.
I played Garrett Over 16.5 Outs at -105 odds as my favorite prop of the day. Garrett’s gone at least 5.0 innings (15 outs) in 10-straight starts, 16 outs in six of them (60%) and 17-plus outs three times (30%) during that span.
The Marlins lost three consecutive games on the road at the Braves, so give Miami on the ML at -125 odds to break the losing skid.
Pick: Marlins ML (1u), Braxton Garrett Over 16.5 Outs (1u)
Orioles (-115) at Yankees (-105): O/U 8.5
Domingo German completed the 24th perfect game in MLB history over his previous start versus the Oakland Athletics, so this is a great time to fade him, in my opinion.
Baltimore rallied back from down 1-0 late in the bottom of the 8th inning yesterday against Minnesota to avoid its first reverse sweep of the season.
The Orioles finally broke out on offense late and that could and should carry over into today’s game. German has a career .200 OBA and 11.4 K% over 44 plate appearances versus Baltimore’s current hitters.
German registered six-straight wins in his first six starts against Baltimore until his previous start in 2022.
Last year, German recorded 5.1 innings, three hits, two earned runs, six strikeouts and three walks, taking the loss.
New York’s offense has been on-and-off lately, but with three games played in the past two days and a 5-1 loss on Sunday, I like Baltimore to steal Game 1 of the series, which is something they’ve done all season.
Pick: Orioles ML (1u)
Royals (+190) at Twins (-225): O/U 9.0
The Royals had two successful outings against the Dodgers in their past two games, but still rank bottom two in SLG and OPS during the last week and 24th in batting average (.227).
Joe Ryan will start for Minnesota and he owns 68 plate appearances versus Kansas City hitters for a .127 OBA and 32.4 K%.
The Royals will turn to Austin Cox who will make his second start and eighth appearance of the season.
In Cox’s start against Cleveland, he surrendered four hits, four earned runs, four walks, two strikeouts and one homer in the 14-1 loss.
The 26-year-old LHP will face a Twins’ offense that is below average versus LHP, but Minnesota did face a LHP yesterday in Cole Irvin. Minnesota got six hits off Irvin for one earned run, plus three walks and one strikeout.
I like the chances the Twins’ bats get to Cox in his second overall start and first on the road.
I played the Twins ML at -175 overnight and woke up to -225/-235. With that movement, I like the Twins -1.5 at -115 for a 0.5 unit play or the Minnesota ML for parlays.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (0.5u)
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