Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting the Cleveland Guardians versus Kansas City Royals, plus the Detroit Tigers hosting the Toronto Blue Jays.
Royals (+155) at Guardians (-180): O/U 8.5
At this point, you might think I am not even trying to cap MLB because at least five days out of the week, I am either fading the Royals or Athletics, but you’ve got to do what pays the bills.
I’m putting my faith in the hands of the Guardians after their 6-1 win over the Royals yesterday. Kansas City has lost four-straight games all by four or more runs, getting outscored 28-8 during that stretch.
Daniel Lynch will throw for Kansas City and the Royals are 3-4 in his seven starts. However, the Royals are 2-1 in his three road starts and Lynch owns a 1.89 ERA and .214 OBA over 19.0 innings.
Regression is due for Lynch’s road numbers as his home splits resemble his game a little more at a 6.04 ERA and .258 OBA over four starts.
Aaron Civale has been consistent all season for Cleveland and I expect him to post another quality start behind an offense that’s scored at least six runs in four of the past six games.
I played the Guardians -1.5 at +110 odds and would go out to -110.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 (1u)
Blue Jays (-130) at Tigers (+110): O/U 9.0
Alek Manoah will make his first start in over a month after being blasted by the Houston Astros for six earned runs on seven hits in 0.1 innings of work (38 pitches).
Manoah is having a catastrophic season, so much that I dropped him in fantasy in May. I drafted him in the third round.
Manoah is 1-7 with a 6.36 ERA over 13 starts and the Blue Jays lost seven-straight Manoah-led starts. Toronto was outscored 50-25 in the past seven starts for Manoah, so it was time to send him back to the minors for some confidence-boosting.
However, we don’t know how Manoah will look but earlier in the season versus Detroit, he went 4.1 innings (94 pitches) and walked five along with three earned runs permitted.
Manoah has a 5.06 ERA in 16.0 innings and three career starts versus Detroit. Toronto is 2-1 on the ML in those three games but Detroit is 2-1 ATS and put up nine combined earned runs on Manoah.
Detroit’s offense went crazy yesterday with 13 hits in a 9-0 win versus Oakland to avoid being swept by the A’s.
Give me Detroit +1.5 at -135 odds and a sprinkle on the Tigers’ ML at +100 or better. The Team Total Over 4.5 isn’t a bad option either, but I liked the insurance on Detroit’s run line.
Pick: Tigers +1.5 (1u)
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